‘TACO’ is an acronym for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’. The term was coined by FT columnist Robert Armstrong. It reflects a cycle where Trump makes sweeping tariff announcements that shake global markets, only to roll them back or delay them shortly afterwards in response to economic or political pressure. Here´s the soundtrack (click). And of course this classic (click)
He sees it differently (and posts it himself). Prepare for chaos.
Is Private Equity trying to stuff their underwater deals and mismarked funds into retail investors ? Value and Opportunity is looking at the industry
Can "taking notes" make you a better investor ? It slows down the reading, but speeds up the learning (see article above)
Morgan Stanley / Michael Mauboussin have a new paper on drawdowns (find a summery of results on page 19 of pdf below): The median drawdown for the 6,500 stocks in our sample from 1985-2024 was 85 percent and took 2.5 years from peak to trough. More than one-half of all stocks never recover to their prior highs. Important: "Even god would get fired": An investor who had the perfect foresight to create a portfolio of the stocks with the highest returns in the next five years would still see substantial drawdowns along the way. Indeed, one five-year stretch of the foresight portfolio had a 76 percent drawdown
Javier Perez is looking at how fraud companies (like Wirecard) hide debt, fake revenue and boost margins
David Einhorn pitched Long Lanxess at the recent Sohn Conference. He sees significant upside (see chart) and a hidden asset. According to Einhorn, the right to sell the stake in Envalior JV is worth EUR 10 (more than 1/3 of Lanxess current share price)
Paul Johnson teaches Value Investing at Columbia University. He has a very good lecture series on the "Value of Growth"
Will Stablecoins be the "buyer of last resort" for US Treasuries ?
Trump Media turning into "Micro Strategy" ? Wild thought: Are they, on purpose, accelerating the dollar debasement to become "ultra-rich" on crypto ?
Buenos Aires is now home to over 493,600 dogs — compared to 460,600 children under the age of 14 (source). A wise man once said, having kids vs having pets is like real sex vs watching porn...
Gary Lineker said farewell to "Match of the Day" last weekend, a show he hosted for >25 years (click). Loved him as a striker, loved him as a pundit. Above all: He´s a decent man. Not afraid to speak his mind and stepping up for the right cause. Here´s a podcast about him and his brother Wayne incl some incredible stories incl the one where "he had Nr. 10 on the back of his shirt and Nr. 2 in his pants" (click).
(Premature) Celebrations in Heard Island and McDonald Islands
