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Long live King Donnie ! He´s now clearly in "omnipotence delusion" territory. Probably because he´s so rich now. See below a podcast on how his fortune has exploded to USD 6.4bn since he took office...
 Scottie Scheffler and the Arrival Fallacy: "Why do I want to win this golf tournament so badly? I don't know. Because if I win it's going to be awesome for about two minutes…I love putting in the work. I love being able to practice. I love getting to live out my dreams. But at the end of the day, sometimes I just don't understand the point". Investing is the same - an infinite game. You better enjoy playing it.
 People expect higher returns from fund brands they trust
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Greek toy retailer Jumbo has compounded at 17% p.a. for the last 2 decades. Still cheap at 9x EBIT.
 The end of the "excess profits" from China, the new US tariffs, a crumbling infrastructure and a welfare state at its tipping point. While Germany is opening its wallet to spend its way out of its malaise - is it time to allocate to Germany ? Swen Lorenz asks this question in his article (below). We agree with him, that in Defense and Infrastructure, the expectations baked into current valuations are excessive, especially given German burocracy and inertia when it comes to deployment of the borrowed monies. We expect "Novo Nordisk/GLP1 reversals" for the Defense and Infrastructure complex, especially the ones notorious for sub-par execution. A gigantic order book is one thing, flawless execution another. Thyssen, Siemens Energy, etc come to mind. We agree with Swen on the car industry in general (stay away), but find selective opportunities (i.e. tariffs forcing Porsche 911 to re-focus on sports cars and significantly reduce volumes) or Conti (a tires pure play in less than 18 months). Also, there might be opportunities not in the physical infrastructure, but when repair is needed in the welfare system (i.e. capital-based pension, requiring advice, i.e. banks, asset managers or pension specialists like MLP, even Neo-brokers). If Germany gets its act together in energy policy (i.e. if we get a truly integrated European energy market, an end to the war in Ukraine, etc), some bombed out Chemical players could see a re-valuation (Wacker, Lanxess, Nabaltec, etc). Some domestic "consumer" plays are cheap (i.e. Zalando, Cewe, Bike24, Einhell, etc). Some "fallen quality angels" are at least worth examination (Sartorius, Carl Zeiss Meditec, Symrise).
 Russia´s secret plot to kill Rheinmetall CEO Pappberger (see article below)
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Think about it this weekend
Since the GFC, European banks have been a "paria", a "no-go zone" for investors. But since the pandemic, the Euro Stoxx Banks is a 4x. What industry is currently considered a no-go ? Automotive, Chemicals, Healthcare/Pharma, Sporting Goods ? |
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The Mag7 vs the biggest companies in history Why Gen Z goes mad for Dostoyevsky? Young people crave an anti-capitalist prophet (source) Enjoy the Weekend!
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