KochBank Weekend Reading

JPOW (reluctantly) turning up the funk, cutting rates at ATHs for stocks, housing, gold, money supply, national debt...

The US consumer seems ok. But that is only "in aggregate". In reality the Top 10% of earners account for 50% of spending....

Underneath, it´s a different story...That´s probably also why Aldi has its moment in the US (see article below)

And: the kids are not alright...

CNN: Credit scores drop at fastest pace since the Great Recession
WSJ: ALDI´s moment in the US
Metronuclear: Open Letter to Puma Supervisory Board

Imagine the sequel, if the unthinkable happend: an Adidas + Puma re-union. Roy Adams of Metronuclear has written an interesting letter (see above) to the Supervisory Board of Puma, raising this idea (and many other very interesting points). Of course this sounds a bit far-fetched, but imagine the marketing potential of such a deal. The potential to create a new "Dassler" brand. Today, fashion and sports retail is about storytelling. And what a story this would be...

A stunning 28% of Chat GPT use is writing...They say: writing = thinking...We start to outsource thinking...(source)

Jerry Neumann compares the AI revolution to the Container revolution and finds: AI is unlikely to make you rich. "Anyone who invests in the new new thing must answer two questions: How much value will this innovation create? And, who will capture it? Information and communication technology was a revolution whose value was captured by startups and led to thousands of newly rich founders, employees, and investors. In contrast, shipping containerization was a revolution whose value was spread so thin that in the end, it made only a single founder temporarily rich and only a single investor a little bit richer."

Jerry Neumann: AI will not make you rich
Big Think: Why your intuition, imagination, and emotion will outlast AI
The Technikum: The Trust Quotient (will be more important than the IQ)

Angus Fletcher in defense of human ingenuity: "Because the Middle Ages were driven by the same logic/data fantasy we have now. Theologians imagined: put perfect data (Scripture) through perfect logic and you’ll get the mind of God. Today’s version is: pour massive data through algorithms and you’ll get omniscience. It didn’t work then. The Renaissance happened when logic broke, on contact with reality — telescopes showed a different sky; new medicines worked; Shakespeare healed people with plays. We needed imagination again. We still do. And yes, medieval culture produced apocalyptic thinking. We’re living through a similar fever — everything feels catastrophic. The antidote is not more logic. It’s better stories, enacted through wiser action. AI can be useful. But it can’t do narrative. It can’t explain why. It can’t feel. It can’t experience serendipity. (see Big Think article above)

Dan Wang shows the difference between China (run by engineers) and the US (run by lawyers, now by the orange dude). See podcast below

Match Group is still down 80% from ATH (despite a recent 40% rally). The stock has a 7.5% FCF yield (adjusted for SBC; 11% if not). It´s not a bulletproof business model and no compounder, but could it be a good investment, still?

Podcasts & Videos:

Odd Lots: Dan Wang on China's Breakneck Economic Growth
The Intrinsic Value Podcast: Match Group - Is finding love a good investment ?
Planet Microcap: Ben Finser on International Small Cap Investing

We are really back to this....

In bed with US assets (again), but only with protection

Some stats before the Oktoberfest starts this weekend. Scientists find that beer price inflation is mostly driven by labor cost (source)

Enjoy the Weekend !

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